
The land of smiles looks to 2012 with optimism. Now that the flood waters have at last receded with Ayuthaya's floating market reopening and business looks like it is coming back albeit slower than in the past, what do we have to look forward to tourism wise in the year ahead ?

Visitor arrivals from overseas toppped the 17 million mark at the end of November and was expected to rise to 18.5 million for the year 2011. There is always a time lag for statistics from the authorities so we will have to take that as achieved for now.
Last year the number topped 15.8 million despite an intense political crises in Bangkok.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has forecasted 2012 numbers of 19.6 million. This looks achievable though the patterns may not mirror the patterns of past years and the markets may not be the same.
I had blogged about this before and I think it still holds true, so I will say it again. Well, don't you think that it is about time that we accept the reality that business in Thailand is not year round any more but we need to take two months out of the budgets as enforced vacation for "Thailand's annual crisis." We don't as yet know what form it will take in 2012 but if we budget for this, it would take a lot of stress off the top management and owners of tourism related businesses who can then look to moonlight in other fields or countries depending upon their opportunities and inclinations.
The thing about "Thailand's annual crisis" is that the tourists are not put off by this any more. Along with how most tourists check weather, hotel availability, they just check whether the malls and nightspots are open or closed and if open, they hop onto a flight for Bangkok. The business therefore rebounds very fast...so fast that some agents are almost caught in the riptide and mistakenly ask for low prices when hotel room availability is the issue.
I know business owners might scoff at the idea but then this kind of exercise might also help them to deal in a more prepared manner with " the annual crisis".

I also think that the Chinese New Year may not be happening the way it was in previous years. This means opportunity to maximise sales for markets such as the Indian sub continent who can produce business at short notice. A Bangkok University poll showed that 87.6% of international tourists interviewed said recent floods had not dented their confidence in Thailand. What is denting the confidence of the Indian sub continent's market is the weakness of their own currency...the Indian Rupee. This means that there might be a shift from leisure group travel there to MICE and FIT travel. The subcontinent produced a million tourists in 2011. This figure will continue to grow at least at 15% in 2012.
We will witness the rise in popularity of new Hotel chains such as Anantara, the consolidation of others and the decline of yet others in the market as ideas and trends explode and hoteliers move to greener pastures. I see the number of hotels continuing to explode across Thailand as rich people continue to build monuments to glorify their families as their ancestors frown upon their extravagances. But this is set to continue. It may take a boutique or niche form but form it is guaranteed to take. This can only be good news for consumers as unhealthy competition keeps prices down.
The Asia Pacific (APAC) travel market was the fastest-growing region worldwide, overtaking the U.S. to become the second-largest regional market after Europe. Yet the APAC market is by no means uniform, with growth trends and online penetration varying by country. Thailand has a long way to go in the area of online travel so development here could be rapid should the conditions be right. So it may be a great idea to think yourself an online or an e commerce strategy for your business.
I see Europe continuing to struggle and America decline while regional markets continuing to grow for Thailand, replacing longer haul markets slowly but surely.
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